Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Xinran Sun and Mariya Yemshanova in the ITF Women Bol, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Xinran Sun' if Xinran Sun advances against Mariya Yemshanova. This market will resolve to 'Mariya Yemshanova' if Mariya Yemshanova advances against Xinran Sun. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ITF Bol: Xinran Sun vs Mariya Yemshanova | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Xinran Sun and Mariya Yemshanova are scheduled to contest a Women's ITF match in Bol, Croatia on 27 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this event at 100% implied probability for Sun's advancement, reflecting either exceptionally high confidence in the outcome or minimal liquidity depth at the current price. With settlement closing on 3 June 2026, traders have a narrow window to assess match conditions and player form.
ITF Women's circuit matches at this tier typically feature significant variance in outcomes, particularly when one player holds a substantial ranking advantage or recent momentum. Historical precedent suggests that markets pricing single outcomes at extreme probabilities—especially 100%—often reflect incomplete information rather than certainty. Comparable ITF events have frequently resolved against consensus when injury disclosures, surface-specific performance gaps, or unexpected tactical adjustments emerge closer to match day.
Key catalysts for traders include official confirmation of both players' participation, any injury updates or withdrawal announcements, and recent head-to-head records if available. The seven-day delay clause creates settlement risk; matches postponed beyond 27 May without completion by 3 June would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Weather conditions in Bol during late May and court surface type (typically clay at this venue) should be monitored, as these factors disproportionately affect lower-ranked players' preparation and performance. Current pricing leaves no margin for adverse information, suggesting limited backing of Yemshanova despite the match structure allowing for competitive uncertainty.
The International Tennis Federation (ITF) designates a World Champion each year based on its own majority opinion of performances throughout the year, emphasizing the Grand Slam tournaments, and also considering team events such as the Davis Cup and Fed Cup. Men's and women's singles champions were first named in 1978; the title is now also awarded for doubl
The 2026 International Tennis Federation (ITF) Women's World Tennis Tour is the entry-level and mid-level tour for women's professional tennis. It is organized by the International Tennis Federation and is a tier below the WTA Challenger series of the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) Tour. The Tour provides a professional pathway between the ITF Junior World
The 2016 International Tennis Federation (ITF) Women's Circuit is a second-tier tour for women's professional tennis. It is organized by the International Tennis Federation and is a tier below the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) Tour. The ITF Women's Circuit includes tournaments with prize money ranging from $10,000 to $100,000.
The 2024 International Tennis Federation (ITF) Women's World Tennis Tour was the entry-level and mid-level tour for women's professional tennis. It was organized by the International Tennis Federation and was a tier below the WTA Challenger series of the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) Tour. The Tour provided a professional pathway between the ITF Junior Wo
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Bol: Xinran Sun vs Mariya Yemshanova" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$62 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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