Trade: NK Istra 1961 vs. HNK Rijeka - Exact Score
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Prva Liga game between NK Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka, scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the NK Istra 1961 vs. HNK Rijeka match originally scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $27K
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
Market context
NK Istra 1961 will host HNK Rijeka in a Croatian Prva Liga fixture on 17 May 2026. The market prices a specific final score at 8% implied probability, with settlement based on the 90-minute result plus stoppage time only. This represents a relatively tight outcome constraint—the listed scoreline must match exactly, with any other result resolving to "Any Other Score," which currently commands the majority of the order book's liquidity.
Croatian Prva Liga matches typically produce varied scorelines, with exact-score markets historically reflecting the difficulty of predicting precise outcomes. Istra and Rijeka are mid-table to upper-mid-table competitors in the league, and their head-to-head record shows competitive, often low-scoring encounters. The 8% probability on this particular scoreline suggests the market is pricing it as a plausible but not favoured outcome relative to the broader distribution of possible results. Polymarket's order book formation reflects traders' assessment that more common scorelines (1–1, 2–1, 1–0) carry higher likelihood.
Traders should monitor team news in the weeks preceding the match, including injury reports and squad rotation decisions as the season concludes. Fixture congestion in May can affect line-ups and intensity. Weather conditions in Istria on match day may influence play style. The settlement window closes at 16:45 UTC on 17 May, allowing approximately four hours post-match for final confirmation of the official result before resolution.
Wikipedia Context
-
NK IstraNogometni Klub Istra, commonly referred to as NK Istra or simply Istra, is a Croatian football club based in the city of Pula. The club currently plays in the fifth level of the Croatian league system, but Istra has also played in the Prva HNL. Istra was founded in 1961 from a merger of NK Pula and NK Uljanik.
-
NK Istra 1961Nogometni klub Istra 1961, commonly referred to as Istra 1961, is a Croatian professional football club based in Pula, that competes in the Croatian First League.
-
NK Iskra BugojnoNK Iskra, commonly known as Iskra Bugojno or just Iskra is a professional association football club from the town of Bugojno that is situated in central Bosnia and Herzegovina. Iskra plays its home matches on the Jaklić Stadium which has a capacity of 12,000 seats.
-
NK TravnikNK Travnik, commonly known as Travnik is a professional association football club from the city of Travnik that is situated in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://hnl.hr/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "NK Istra 1961 vs. HNK Rijeka - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://hnl.hr/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "NK Istra 1961 vs. HNK Rijeka - Exact Score"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: