Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Friday, June 19, 2026 between Türkiye and Paraguay.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (Türkiye vs. Paraguay) | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Paraguay | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Türkiye | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Türkiye and Paraguay will face each other in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 19 June. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Türkiye victory at 29 per cent, implying the market assigns roughly equal weight to a draw (often priced near 25–28 per cent) and a Paraguay win, with the remainder distributed across those outcomes. This probability reflects pre-tournament positioning, where group-stage matchups depend heavily on team form, injury status, and draw seeding—factors that remain fluid until the tournament begins.
Historically, Türkiye has qualified for five World Cups and reached the semi-finals in 2002; Paraguay has qualified four times but has not advanced past the group stage since 1998. Head-to-head records are sparse, with only two competitive meetings since 2000, both friendlies. The 29 per cent probability for a Türkiye win appears conservative relative to FIFA rankings and tournament pedigree, suggesting the market may be pricing in Paraguay's defensive solidity or uncertainty around Türkiye's squad depth ahead of the tournament.
Key catalysts for traders include official squad announcements (typically 10–14 days before the tournament), injury updates to key players, and confirmation of the final group composition once the draw is conducted. Türkiye's qualifying campaign and recent competitive form will be scrutinised; Paraguay's preparation and any late roster changes could shift the implied probability materially. Settlement occurs at 03:00 UTC on 20 June, immediately after the match concludes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Türkiye vs. Paraguay" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$396 in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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