Trade: Senegal vs. Iraq
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Friday, June 26, 2026 between Senegal and Iraq.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $10K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Senegal | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Iraq | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Draw (Senegal vs. Iraq) | 32% YES | 68% NO |
Market context
Senegal and Iraq will meet in a group-stage fixture at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 26 June. The current order book on Polymarket prices Senegal's victory at 49%, implying near-parity between the two sides despite their differing competitive profiles. This 49% YES probability reflects genuine uncertainty in the market, with the spread suggesting traders view the match as genuinely competitive rather than a clear favourite emerging.
Senegal reached the Africa Cup of Nations final in January 2022 and qualified for the 2022 World Cup, where they exited the group stage. Iraq, conversely, has not qualified for a World Cup since 1986 and has limited recent tournament experience at the highest level. Historical precedent suggests African representatives typically outperform Asian sides in World Cup group play, though Iraq's qualification itself signals improved regional standing. The 49% probability may reflect uncertainty about Senegal's form heading into 2026 and Iraq's potential development trajectory over the next two years.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and competitive form through 2025–26 qualifying campaigns and continental tournaments. Injuries to key Senegal players, managerial changes at either federation, and performance in the Africa Cup of Nations (January 2026) will provide concrete signals. Recent fixture results between comparable nations and any pre-tournament friendlies in June 2026 will sharpen probability estimates as the settlement window approaches.
Wikipedia Context
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Senegalia rugataSenegalia rugata is a spiny climbing shrub native to China and tropical Asia, common in the warm plains of central and south India. It is renowned as a raw material for shampoo, and the leaves and young shoots are often eaten. Archaeobotanical evidence shows its use for hair care in the pre-Harrapan levels of Banawali, some 4500–4300 years ago.
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Senegalia catechuSenegalia catechu, previously known as Acacia catechu, is a deciduous, thorny tree which grows up to 15 m (50 ft) in height. The plant is called kachu in Malay; the Malay name was Latinized to "catechu" in Linnaean taxonomy, as the species from which the extracts cutch and catechu are derived. Other common names for it include kher, catechu, cachou, cutchtre
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Senegalia greggiiSenegalia greggii, formerly known as Acacia greggii, is a species of tree in the genus Senegalia native to the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Common names include acacia bush, catclaw acacia, catclaw mesquite, Gregg's catclaw, paradise flower, wait-a-minute bush, and wait-a-bit tree; these names mostly come from the fact that the tree has nu
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Senegalia senegalSenegalia senegal is a small thorny deciduous tree from the genus Senegalia, which is known by several common names, including gum acacia, gum arabic tree, Sudan gum and Sudan gum arabic. In parts of India, it is known as kher, khor, or kumatiya. It is native to semi-desert regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as Oman, Pakistan, and west coastal India. It
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Senegal vs. Iraq" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Senegal vs. Iraq"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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