Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between England and Croatia, scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Croatia | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| Draw | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| England | 39% YES | 61% NO |
England will face Croatia in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market settles on the halftime result—whether England leads, the sides are level, or Croatia leads after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. Current Polymarket order book pricing implies a 16% probability of a Croatia halftime lead, reflecting how traders are weighting the likelihood of an away victory in the opening half.
Halftime away leads in World Cup matches occur at modest but meaningful frequency. Across recent tournaments, approximately 20–25% of group-stage matches have seen the away side ahead at the interval, though this varies considerably by team quality and tactical approach. Croatia reached the 2022 World Cup quarter-finals and has historically shown defensive solidity in tournament play, whilst England's recent form includes reaching the Euro 2020 final and the 2018 World Cup semi-finals. The 16% probability on the order book sits below the broader tournament baseline, suggesting traders currently assess England as likely to control early possession and tempo at home.
Team news and final squad announcements will shape trader positioning through mid-June. Injury status for key England midfielders and Croatia's forward line will be monitored closely, as will any late tactical shifts disclosed by either manager. Weather conditions at the venue on match day—humidity, temperature, and pitch state—can influence early-game pacing and pressing intensity. Historical head-to-head records and recent warm-up fixture results will likely inform final position adjustments as the settlement window approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "England vs. Croatia - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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