Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Thursday, June 4, 2026 between Sweden and Greece.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Sweden | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Draw (Sweden vs. Greece) | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Greece | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Sweden and Greece will meet in an international friendly fixture on 4 June 2026. The match carries no competitive stakes—both nations will be preparing for their respective summer schedules, and squad rotation is typical in such encounters. The current order book on Polymarket prices Sweden's victory at 46 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest confidence in the home side despite their historical advantage in head-to-head records.
Sweden holds a stronger recent record against Greece, winning four of their last six competitive and friendly meetings since 2015. Greece's defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed in qualifying campaigns, whilst Sweden's midfield depth and attacking options provide a structural advantage in open play. However, the 46 per cent probability suggests the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty—possibly reflecting Greece's capacity to frustrate in defensive setups or Sweden's inconsistency in low-stakes friendlies where motivation can be uneven.
Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, particularly injury status among key players. Friendly fixtures often see experimental lineups, which can shift match dynamics considerably. The timing in early June, post-domestic season, means fatigue levels and player availability will fluctuate as clubs conclude their campaigns. Recent form in qualifying or club competition may offer limited predictive value given the exhibition nature of the fixture. Settlement occurs at 17:00 UTC on match day, allowing only the final team sheets and pre-match conditions to move the probability materially from its current level.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Sweden vs. Greece" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $985 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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