Sports

Trade: Japan vs. Iceland - Exact Score

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Japan and Iceland, scheduled for May 31, 2026 at 6:25 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Japan vs. Iceland match originally scheduled for May 31, 2026 at 6:25 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will be…

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$37
Total Volume
—
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
—
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Market outcomes

Exact Score: 0-0 50% YES51% NO
Exact Score: 0-1 50% YES51% NO
Exact Score: 1-0 50% YES51% NO
Exact Score: 0-2 50% YES51% NO
Exact Score: 1-1 50% YES51% NO
Exact Score: 2-0 50% YES51% NO
Exact Score: 0-3 50% YES51% NO
Exact Score: 1-2 50% YES51% NO

Market context

Japan and Iceland will meet in an international friendly on 31 May 2026, with the market settling on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The 50% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty around specific scorelines rather than the match outcome itself. Polymarket's order book currently prices this at even odds, suggesting traders are split between backing a narrow result and hedging against the "Any Other Score" catch-all category.

Historical precedent for Japan-Iceland fixtures is limited, with their most recent competitive meeting occurring in 2018 World Cup qualifying. Japan's typical output in friendlies ranges from 1–2 goals, whilst Iceland has averaged similar figures in recent matches. The current probability distribution suggests the market is pricing in a relatively low-scoring encounter, consistent with both nations' recent form and defensive solidity. Japan's qualification for the 2026 World Cup provides context for their preparation intensity during this window.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations, as injury absences or experimental lineups could materially shift scoring expectations. Japan's domestic J-League season will be in full swing, potentially affecting player availability and sharpness. Iceland's fixture schedule leading into late May will determine their preparation state. Any late changes to venue or kickoff time could affect player fatigue profiles, though the early morning ET slot (6:25 AM) suggests a European location, likely favouring neither side disproportionately.

Wikipedia Context

  • Japan Islanders
    Japan Islanders

    The Japan Islanders are an independent professional baseball team based in Lyon Mountain, New York, United States. They play in the Empire Professional Baseball League (EPBL), which is not affiliated with Major League Baseball.

  • Japonic languages
    Japonic languages

    Japonic or Japanese–Ryukyuan is a language family comprising Japanese, spoken in the main islands of Japan, and the Ryukyuan languages, spoken in the Ryukyu Islands. The family is universally accepted by linguists, and significant progress has been made in reconstructing the proto-language, Proto-Japonic. The reconstruction implies a split between all dialec

  • Japanese land law

    Japanese land law is the law of real property in Japan. A nationwide city land law began in 1919. This was completely revised in more detail in 1968, focusing on City Planning Areas. The concept of zoning was introduced to all of Japan beginning with the Land-Use Law in 1974. This was later integrated into City Planning Areas. After 2011, a decentralisation

  • Japanese landing craft carrier Akitsu Maru
    Japanese landing craft carrier Akitsu Maru

    Akitsu Maru (あきつ丸) was a "Type C" landing craft carrier with a full-length flight deck built for the Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) during World War II. The ship was originally a passenger liner taken over by the IJA before completion. Akitsu Maru's planned role was to provide aircover during amphibious and landing operations; in practice the ship was essentia

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Japan vs. Iceland - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$0 in lifetime turnover and $37 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Japan vs. Iceland - Exact Score"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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