Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 3 at 1:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Gibraltar (-1.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| British Virgin Islands (-1.5) | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Gibraltar (-2.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| British Virgin Islands (-2.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 62% YES | 38% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
Gibraltar and the British Virgin Islands are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 3 June at 1:00 PM ET. The market currently reflects a 38% probability of additional markets being created for this fixture, with that implied probability formed by the order book activity on Polymarket today. The settlement hinges on whether supplementary betting markets—beyond those already live—will be offered before the match concludes.
International Friendlies between lower-ranked nations typically generate limited market depth on major platforms. Gibraltar (FIFA rank 197) and the BVI (FIFA rank 206) represent fixtures where sportsbooks often restrict their offering to basic outcomes rather than expanding into secondary markets such as goal-scorer props, corner totals, or handicap bets. Historical precedent suggests that friendlies between nations outside the top 100 rarely attract the volume needed to justify additional market creation, though occasional exceptions occur when fixtures gain unexpected media attention or when operators seek to expand coverage in niche competitions.
Traders should monitor FIFA's official fixture calendar and any late announcements from either federation regarding squad changes or broadcast arrangements. The timing of the match—mid-week in early June—places it outside major tournament windows, reducing likelihood of heightened interest. Sportsbook decisions on market expansion typically depend on pre-match betting volume and regional demand; any surge in wagers on the primary outcome could signal operator appetite for secondary markets, though current pricing suggests subdued expectations for extended coverage.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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