Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Gibraltar and British Virgin Islands, scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands match originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Gibraltar and British Virgin Islands will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 3 June 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact final score outcome, settling on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with any unmatched scoreline resolving to "Any Other Score." The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability, suggesting substantial uncertainty around which specific scoreline will materialise.
Historical context for Gibraltar–BVI encounters is sparse, given both nations' limited competitive history at senior international level. Gibraltar, ranked approximately 196th in FIFA standings, competes regularly in UEFA qualifying campaigns and friendlies. British Virgin Islands, ranked significantly lower around 210th, participates in CONCACAF fixtures with considerably fewer international matches. The 50–50 probability split likely reflects the difficulty in forecasting exact scores between lower-ranked nations where data samples are small and squad composition fluctuates substantially between fixtures. Comparable friendly matches involving nations outside the top 100 typically produce wide distributions across possible scorelines rather than clustering around single outcomes.
Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, as injuries or withdrawals can shift competitive balance. The venue and weather conditions remain unconfirmed; fixture location may favour one side logistically. Any late postponement announcements would extend the settlement window, though the market remains open pending match completion. Recent international friendly scheduling has seen occasional cancellations due to administrative or security concerns affecting smaller nations' fixtures.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $626 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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