Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between France and Northern Ireland, scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 3:10 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the France vs. Northern Ireland match originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 3:10 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
France will face Northern Ireland in a FIFA International Friendly on 8 June 2026 at 3:10 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with any unlisted scoreline settling as "Any Other Score." The 50% implied probability reflects substantial uncertainty about whether the match will produce one of the explicitly listed outcomes versus a result outside those parameters. Given the breadth of possible scorelines in football, exact-score markets typically see significant probability mass distributed across "Any Other Score," which explains why any single listed result commands modest odds.
Historical precedent suggests France's fixture difficulty matters considerably. As a top-ten ranked nation, France typically generates 2–3 goals per friendly whilst conceding fewer than one. Northern Ireland, ranked considerably lower, generally concedes multiple goals in matches against stronger opposition. However, friendly matches introduce volatility—teams often rotate squads, adjust tactical approaches, or field experimental lineups, making scorelines less predictable than competitive fixtures. Recent friendlies between disparate-ranked sides have produced varied results, from narrow victories to comfortable margins.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and team news closer to the fixture date, particularly regarding France's player availability and any late tactical shifts. Confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled remains essential, given the settlement window's dependency on completion. Polymarket's order book will reflect shifting probabilities as these variables crystallise, with the current 50% probability likely to adjust once clearer information on team selection emerges.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "France vs. Northern Ireland - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $529 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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