Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Euroleague basketball game, scheduled for May 13 at 3:00PM ET: If the Valencia win, the market will resolve to "Valencia". If the Panathinaikos win, the market will resolve to "Panathinaikos". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia vs. Panathinaikos | 56% YES | 44% NO |
Valencia Basket and Panathinaikos will compete in a Euroleague basketball match on 13 May at 3:00PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 55% implied probability for a Valencia victory, pricing the Greek club's chances at approximately 45%. This probability distribution emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, where traders continuously adjust positions based on their assessments of team form, injury status, and matchup dynamics.
Euroleague knockout fixtures at this stage of the season typically favour teams with deeper rosters and superior regular-season records. Valencia has historically performed competitively in European competition, whilst Panathinaikos represents one of Greece's strongest basketball institutions. The current 55-45 split suggests marginal confidence in Valencia's prospects rather than decisive favouritism, reflecting uncertainty about team readiness and recent performance trajectories heading into May.
Traders should monitor official Euroleague announcements regarding player availability and any schedule changes in the days preceding the fixture. Team news regarding injuries to key rotation players could materially shift the probability, particularly for either squad's perimeter or interior depth. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on 13 May, allowing approximately four hours post-match for final resolution. Any postponement would extend the market's duration until completion, whilst outright cancellation without rescheduling would trigger a 50-50 split.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/euroleague/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia vs. Panathinaikos" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$435 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $208 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 56%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/euroleague/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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