Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between Sunderland AFC and Manchester United FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Sunderland AFC | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Draw (Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC) | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Manchester United FC | 36% YES | 65% NO |
Sunderland will host Manchester United on Saturday, 9 May 2026 in a Premier League fixture. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Manchester United victory at 25 per cent, implying Sunderland's win or draw at 75 per cent combined. This probability reflects the substantial gap in recent form and league position between the two clubs, though the settlement window extends to 14:00 GMT on match day, allowing traders to adjust positions as team news and conditions crystallise.
Historically, Manchester United's away record in the final weeks of the season has been volatile; their performance often depends on whether they remain in contention for European qualification or have secured their position. Sunderland's home advantage at the Stadium of Light carries measurable weight in fixture outcomes, particularly late in the season when fatigue affects travelling squads. The 25 per cent probability for United reflects a scenario where they arrive without momentum or with squad rotation, balanced against their superior squad depth and experience in high-pressure fixtures.
Traders should monitor team news releases, injury confirmations, and any mid-week European commitments that might affect squad rotation in the days before the match. Sunderland's league position and points differential relative to safety will signal their tactical approach. Manchester United's standing in the table—whether they are chasing points or resting players—will be the primary catalyst determining whether the current odds hold or shift materially closer to kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.6M in lifetime turnover and $184K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.5M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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