Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Denmark Superliga game, scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026 between FC København and Randers FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| FC København | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| Draw (FC København vs. Randers FC) | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Randers FC | 22% YES | 79% NO |
FC København will host Randers FC in a Denmark Superliga fixture on Sunday, 17 May 2026. The 61% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a clear favourite status for the Copenhagen side, with traders pricing in their superior league position and historical head-to-head record. The current probability formation reflects real-time order flow across the book, where backing København at this price requires conviction that their advantage extends beyond the baseline expectation already embedded in the market.
Historically, København have dominated Randers in recent seasons, winning roughly two-thirds of their meetings over the past five years. However, late-season Superliga fixtures often feature compressed schedules and fixture congestion that can narrow performance gaps. The 61% probability sits between a simple home-team baseline (typically 55–60% in Danish football) and a dominant-favourite baseline (70%+), suggesting the market is pricing moderate but not overwhelming advantage. Comparable mid-table challengers facing top-four sides in May have covered the spread at rates consistent with this probability band.
Traders should monitor team news through mid-May, particularly injury updates and any fixture rescheduling that might affect squad rotation. København's European commitments earlier in the season may influence their form trajectory into May, whilst Randers' league position and any relegation-battle implications could affect tactical approach. Weather conditions on the day and any late-season managerial changes would also shift the probability, though such variables typically move the market only modestly once the settlement window is active.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://superligaen.dk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC København vs. Randers FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$23 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://superligaen.dk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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