Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between MOUZ and Gentle Mates in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 9 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Gentle Mates. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
MOUZ, the Austrian esports organisation, face Gentle Mates in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match during the PGL Astana Group Stage on 9 May at 04:00 ET. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for MOUZ victory, indicating the market has priced in an overwhelming expectation of the favoured team winning. This extreme probability typically emerges when one competitor holds a substantial competitive advantage or when historical matchup data heavily favours one side.
MOUZ have consistently ranked amongst Europe's top Counter-Strike teams, regularly competing in tier-one tournaments and maintaining rosters with proven international credentials. Gentle Mates operate at a considerably lower competitive tier, with limited appearances in major tournament structures. Historical precedent suggests matches between teams separated by this competitive distance rarely produce upsets; the orderbook's current pricing reflects this established hierarchy rather than any recent dramatic shift in either team's form or roster composition.
Traders should monitor for schedule disruptions, as the settlement window extends seven days beyond the scheduled match date—any postponement or cancellation without completion would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Additionally, last-minute roster changes or player availability issues could theoretically alter the competitive balance, though neither team has reported significant roster instability recently. The PGL Astana event structure and any official announcements regarding group stage matches should be tracked through the tournament's official channels and esports news outlets for confirmation of fixture timing and format integrity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$922K in lifetime turnover and $490K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $906K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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