Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Lucknow Super Giants and Royal Challengers Bangalore scheduled for 2026-05-07 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Lucknow Super Giants will be considered correct if Lucknow Super Giants is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| LUC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ROY | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Lucknow Super Giants and Royal Challengers Bangalore will meet in the 2026 Indian Premier League season on 7 May, with this market requiring both a correct toss prediction and match outcome forecast. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the compound nature of the bet: a trader must correctly call both the coin flip and the subsequent match result, each carrying independent uncertainty. The settlement hinges on official data from ESPNcricinfo, with the toss outcome determined at the ground and the match result finalised after play concludes.
Historical IPL data shows toss outcomes approximate 50-50 splits across seasons, whilst match results depend heavily on team composition, form, and venue conditions. Lucknow Super Giants and Royal Challengers Bangalore have competed in recent IPL campaigns with varying success rates; neither franchise has dominated toss-dependent performance patterns sufficiently to skew probability significantly. The compound probability of winning both elements typically sits between 20-30% for any given matchup between evenly matched sides, suggesting current pricing may reflect either illiquidity on the order book or trader caution around the May 2026 timeframe.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the match approaches, particularly for key players affecting team balance and win probability. Venue conditions at the scheduled ground—pitch reports and weather forecasts closer to 7 May—will influence match outcome expectations. The settlement window closes 14 May, allowing time for official result confirmation. Current order book depth will determine whether prices shift materially as the fixture date nears and more information crystallises.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$336 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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