Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Colombia Primera A game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between CD Tolima and AD Pasto.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CD Tolima | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (CD Tolima vs. AD Pasto) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| AD Pasto | 0% YES | 100% NO |
CD Tolima will face AD Pasto in a Colombia Primera A fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this match at 100% implied probability for the YES outcome, indicating near-certainty among traders that the event will occur as scheduled. This extreme probability typically reflects high confidence that the match will proceed without cancellation or postponement, rather than a prediction of the final result.
Colombian football's domestic calendar has historically shown strong fixture completion rates, with Primera A matches rarely cancelled due to administrative or logistical failures. However, matches have been postponed for weather conditions, security concerns, or stadium availability. The 100% pricing suggests traders are assigning negligible risk to any disruption between now and the settlement window closing on 9 May at 23:10 UTC. This assessment may reflect both teams' current league standing and fixture congestion, as well as the absence of reported scheduling conflicts.
Traders monitoring this market should track official Colombian football federation (FCF) announcements regarding fixture confirmations, any injury or suspension notices affecting squad availability, and weather forecasts for the Tolima and Pasto regions in the week preceding the match. Recent fixture data from the 2025–26 season would indicate whether either club has experienced unusual postponements. The extreme probability leaves minimal room for repricing unless material news emerges suggesting cancellation risk, making this a low-volatility position for most trading strategies.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://dimayor.com.co/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CD Tolima vs. AD Pasto" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$89K in lifetime turnover and $1.1M of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $88K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://dimayor.com.co/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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