Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Colombia Primera A game between Atlético Nacional and Internacional de Bogotá, scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 7:20 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Atlético Nacional | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Internacional de Bogotá | 46% YES | 54% NO |
Atlético Nacional will host Internacional de Bogotá in a Colombia Primera A fixture on 12 May 2026 at 7:20 PM ET. The market is pricing the probability of a Nacional victory at halftime at 49%, with the order book on Polymarket currently reflecting balanced sentiment between a home win and either a draw or away result in the opening 45 minutes. Settlement occurs immediately after the first-half whistle, making this a straightforward assessment of early-match momentum rather than full-match dynamics.
Nacional enters as the stronger historical side, having won the Colombian league multiple times and maintaining a larger squad budget than Internacional, a smaller Bogotá-based club. However, halftime markets typically show compressed probabilities compared to full-match outcomes, as early tactical setups and defensive organisation often produce draws or low-scoring periods. Historical data from Colombian Primera A halftime markets suggests that when a clear favourite is priced near 49–51%, it often reflects genuine competitive uncertainty rather than undervaluation, particularly in matches between clubs with notable quality gaps that may not manifest in the first 45 minutes.
Key variables for traders include team news on injuries or suspensions, which typically emerge in the 48 hours before kickoff, and recent form in opening-half performance. Internacional's defensive record and Nacional's pressing intensity in early stages will influence how the match develops. Weather conditions in Bogotá at altitude can affect early-game pace and fatigue patterns. The settlement window closes shortly after the match begins, so pre-match information gathering is critical for positioning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://dimayor.com.co/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Atlético Nacional vs. Internacional de Bogotá - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $749 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://dimayor.com.co/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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