Trade: CD Limache vs. CD Universidad Católica - Halftime Result
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Chile Primera game between CD Limache and CD Universidad Católica, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Draw | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| CD Universidad Católica | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| CD Limache | 38% YES | 63% NO |
Market context
CD Limache hosts CD Universidad Católica in Chile's Primera División on 16 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 46% probability for a Limache halftime victory, with the remaining probability distributed across draws and away wins. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity rather than a single source, making it a composite of trader expectations across multiple positions.
Halftime markets in Chilean football typically correlate with team form and tactical approach. Universidad Católica, historically the stronger side in this fixture, would ordinarily command favourability in early-game scenarios given their possession-based setup and pressing intensity. Limache's 46% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in competitive first-half conditions, possibly reflecting recent domestic form or squad availability. Historical halftime results in this fixture show variable patterns; neither side has established a dominant early-game advantage, which supports the relatively balanced pricing currently visible on the order book.
Key variables for traders include confirmed team lineups, which typically emerge 24–48 hours before kickoff, and any late injury announcements affecting key midfield or attacking personnel. Weather conditions in Valparaíso region and pitch state can influence early-game tempo. The settlement window closes at 00:00 UTC on 17 May, providing a tight window for position adjustment post-match. Monitor official Chilean football federation communications and club statements for squad news that might shift the current probability distribution.
Wikipedia Context
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Istros the Callimachean
Istros the Callimachean was a Greek writer, probably from Paphos. He was a pupil of Callimachus, and active in the Library of Alexandria. Seventy-seven fragments of his writings remain, mostly from his four-volume Attica, which discussed the cult, religion, and institutions of Attica in its mythical past, based largely on Atthides. According to the Suda, a 1
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CallimachusCallimachus was an ancient Greek poet, scholar, and librarian who was active in Alexandria during the 3rd century BC. A representative of Ancient Greek literature of the Hellenistic period, he wrote over 800 literary works, most of which do not survive, in a wide variety of genres. He espoused an aesthetic philosophy, known as Callimacheanism, which exerted
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Callimache
Callimache or Kallimache was a port town of ancient Caria. The Stadiasmus Maris Magni mentions the town as being 50 stadia from Daedala.
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Climacteric (botany)
Generally, fleshy fruits can be divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of a respiratory increase at the onset of ripening. This respiratory increase—which is preceded, or accompanied, by a rise in ethylene—is called a climacteric, and there are marked differences in the development of climacteric and non-climacteric fruits. Climacteric frui
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://anfp.cl/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "CD Limache vs. CD Universidad Católica - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://anfp.cl/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "CD Limache vs. CD Universidad Católica - Halftime Result"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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