Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season. If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Goals scored in Bundesliga matches only will count. Goals in other competitions (e.g., DFB-Pokal, German Super Cup, Champions League, Europa League, international matches) will not count for this market. If multiple players tie for the top goal scorer, the market will resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Player K | — | |
| Harry Kane | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Player G | — | |
| Player Q | — | |
| Serhou Guirassy | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Player L | — | |
| Patrik Schick | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Player N | — | |
The 2025–26 Bundesliga season will run from August 2025 through May 2026, with the top goalscorer title determined solely by league matches. This market resolves to "Yes" only if a single player finishes with the most Bundesliga goals; if multiple players tie on goals, alphabetical ordering by surname determines the winner. The settlement window closes on 28 May 2026, immediately after the final matchday.
Historical Bundesliga top-scorer races show volatility driven by injury, form shifts, and managerial changes mid-season. Robert Lewandowski's dominance (2019–21) created predictable markets, yet seasons without a clear favourite—such as 2016–17 when Pierre-Michel Lasogga, Anthony Modeste and Sandro Wagner competed closely—saw significant probability swings. Recent seasons have favoured players at Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, though Cologne's Modeste and Frankfurt's Sebastien Haller demonstrated that mid-table sides can produce top scorers. Current crowd pricing reflects uncertainty about squad composition and summer transfers, which typically conclude by late August.
Key catalysts include the summer transfer window (closes 1 September 2025), pre-season form indicators, and managerial appointments at major clubs. Injuries to established strikers at Bayern or Dortmund would immediately reshape probabilities. The Bundesliga fixture list, released in June 2025, will reveal scheduling advantages for certain clubs. Traders should monitor whether Serge Gnabry, Florian Wirtz or emerging talents move clubs, as positional changes and playing time directly impact goal tallies. Early-season form through October typically establishes which players are in contention.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bundesliga - Top Goalscorer" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$400K in lifetime turnover and $55K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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