Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team achieves promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026–27 season at the conclusion of the current league season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Official promotion is defined as a team clinching a place in the Bundesliga for the 2026–27 season through their final standing in the Bundesliga 2, via playoff victory, or by any other official league decision recognized by the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2. If the 2025-26 Bundesliga 2 season is cancelled, postponed after June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for promotion within that timeframe, the corresponding market will “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Arminia Bielefeld | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| VfL Bochum | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Darmstadt 98 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dynamo Dresden | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Holstein Kiel | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Preussen Munster | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| SV Elversberg | 84% YES | 16% NO |
The 2025–26 Bundesliga 2 season will determine which teams earn promotion to Germany's top division for the 2026–27 campaign. Typically, the top two finishers secure automatic promotion, whilst the third-place team enters a playoff against the Bundesliga's 16th-placed side. The settlement window closes on 25 May 2026, capturing the conclusion of the regular season and any subsequent playoff matches required to confirm final promotion places.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal trading activity establishing price discovery for this particular team. Historical Bundesliga 2 promotion markets show significant volatility across seasons, with surprise contenders regularly emerging from mid-table positions by January. The current zero valuation suggests either that traders assess this team's mathematical path to promotion as effectively closed, or that insufficient liquidity has formed to establish a meaningful market price.
Traders monitoring this market should track the team's points accumulation through the winter break and January transfer window, when promotion races typically crystallise. Key catalysts include fixture congestion affecting promotion contenders, managerial changes at competing clubs, and injury developments amongst squad depth. The Bundesliga 2 typically publishes official standings weekly; monitoring the gap between this team and the promotion zone will signal whether the market's current pricing warrants adjustment. Any significant ownership changes or financial developments affecting the club could alter promotion prospects materially.
Bundesliga is the top league in the German table tennis league system.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bundesliga 2: Team promoted to Bundesliga" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$54K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $515 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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