Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Bulgaria Parva Liga game between PFC Levski Sofia and PFC CSKA Sofia, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the PFC Levski Sofia vs. PFC CSKA Sofia match originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
PFC Levski Sofia and PFC CSKA Sofia will meet in the Bulgaria Parva Liga on 16 May 2026. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts. Any score not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score." The current order book on Polymarket implies a 10% probability for the specific outcome in question, reflecting the combined weight of all listed exact-score possibilities and the relative liquidity across the book.
Exact-score markets in domestic football leagues typically carry low individual probabilities because the number of possible outcomes is large—most matches produce one of roughly 15–20 common scorelines, but the tail extends considerably. Historical data from similar Eastern European league fixtures shows that when two evenly matched sides meet, the modal outcomes cluster around 1–1, 1–0, 2–1, and 0–0, each capturing 8–12% of occurrences. The 10% implied probability here suggests traders are pricing this particular scoreline as moderately likely relative to the full distribution of possibilities.
Key variables affecting the match outcome include squad fitness and availability in the final weeks of the season, recent form trajectories of both clubs, and any managerial changes announced before the fixture. Levski and CSKA have historically produced competitive encounters; recent Bulgarian Parva Liga standings and team news closer to mid-May will clarify whether either side enters with injury concerns or motivation shifts. Weather conditions on the day and referee assignment, whilst less predictable, can influence scoring patterns in late-season matches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://bfunion.bg/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "PFC Levski Sofia vs. PFC CSKA Sofia - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://bfunion.bg/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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