Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for May 17 at 7:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SC Recife (-1.5) | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| CR Brasil (-1.5) | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| CR Brasil (-2.5) | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| SC Recife (-2.5) | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
SC Recife and CR Brasil will meet in Brazil's Serie B on 17 May at 7:30 PM ET. The market is pricing a 29% probability for "more markets" to be created around this fixture, suggesting traders currently assess a below-even chance that additional betting markets beyond the standard match outcome will be offered on Polymarket before the settlement window closes on 17 May at 11:30 PM ET.
Historical precedent shows that Polymarket's coverage of Brazilian Serie B matches varies considerably. Whilst high-profile fixtures or matches involving larger clubs typically attract multiple market types—including player performance props, corner counts, and card markets—mid-table or lower-profile matchups often settle with only basic outcome markets. Recife and Brasil occupy mid-tier positions in the division, which contextualises the current 29% implied probability as reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the market creator ecosystem will deem additional markets commercially viable for this particular encounter.
The primary catalyst remains the order book's depth and activity in the coming days. Polymarket's order book will reveal whether traders are actively positioning for or against additional market creation, with significant buy or sell pressure potentially signalling expected announcements from market creators. The fixture's timing—scheduled for the latter stages of the Serie B season—may influence creator appetite, as matches with playoff implications typically attract broader market interest. Any news regarding injury status, team form, or playoff positioning could alter trader expectations about market proliferation around this match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "SC Recife vs. CR Brasil - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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