Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Sunday, May 24, 2026 between América FC and Vila Nova FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| América FC | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (América FC vs. Vila Nova FC) | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Vila Nova FC | 36% YES | 64% NO |
On Sunday, 24 May 2026, América FC will face Vila Nova FC in a Brazil Serie B fixture. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 41% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the market views this as a competitive match with meaningful uncertainty. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity and represents the aggregated assessment of participants pricing the available liquidity.
Both clubs operate within Brazil's second tier, where form variance and squad depth fluctuate considerably across a congested fixture calendar. Historical Serie B matchups between mid-table sides typically settle around 40–50% implied probability for home or favoured teams, reflecting the competitive parity that characterises the division. Vila Nova FC has demonstrated resilience in recent seasons, whilst América FC's performance trajectory will depend on squad retention and managerial continuity heading into late May. Comparable fixtures from previous seasons show that pre-match injury announcements and late team news can shift probabilities by 5–10 percentage points in the final 48 hours.
Traders should monitor official team sheets and any squad rotation decisions, particularly given potential fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season. Confirmation of starting lineups typically arrives 24 hours before kickoff. Weather conditions in central Brazil during May can affect pitch conditions and playing style. The settlement window closes at 21:30 UTC on match day, allowing traders to react to early team news but requiring positions to be finalised before kickoff.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "América FC vs. Vila Nova FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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