Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Magdeburg, scheduled for May 9, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg match originally scheduled for May 9, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Holstein Kiel travel to face 1. FC Magdeburg in the 2. Bundesliga on 9 May 2026, with the match kicking off at 7:00 AM ET. The market resolves on the final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts. Settlement occurs at 11:00 AM ET on the same day. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the current absence of meaningful liquidity backing any single exact-score outcome, a common pattern for niche sports betting markets where traders must select from dozens of possible results.
Exact-score markets in the 2. Bundesliga typically see their probability mass distributed across a wide range of outcomes, with 1–0, 1–1, 2–1 and 2–0 results historically accounting for roughly 40–50% of all matches. Kiel finished the 2024–25 season competing for promotion, whilst Magdeburg has been a consistent mid-table performer. The timing of this fixture—late in the season—suggests both clubs' final league positions and remaining objectives will influence team selection and tactical approach, affecting scoring likelihood.
Traders should monitor team news in the week preceding the match, particularly injury updates and squad rotation decisions. Kiel's promotion ambitions or Magdeburg's European qualification hopes, if still live, would shape how aggressively each side attacks. Weather conditions on match day and any fixture congestion affecting either club's preparation warrant attention. The early kickoff time (7:00 AM ET) is atypical for German football and may reflect broadcast scheduling rather than competitive factors.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$527 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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