Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for May 17 at 9:30 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Karlsruher SC (-1.5) | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| VfL Bochum (-1.5) | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Karlsruher SC (-2.5) | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| VfL Bochum (-2.5) | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 69% YES | 31% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Karlsruher SC and VfL Bochum will meet in the 2. Bundesliga on 17 May 2026, with settlement tied to the outcome of this fixture. The 31% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in a specific scenario within this matchup, though the exact market condition—whether it concerns a draw, an away win, or another outcome—determines how that probability should be contextualised against historical performance.
Second-tier German football has shown considerable volatility in recent seasons, with both clubs experiencing fluctuations in form and league position. Bochum's promotion history and Karlsruhe's competitive record in the 2. Bundesliga provide reference points for assessing how likely either side is to achieve their objective in this fixture. The current probability sits below the midpoint, suggesting the market is pricing in a less-favoured outcome relative to even odds, though without access to recent team form, injury reports, or head-to-head records as of May 2026, traders should verify whether this reflects genuine underlying weakness or market inefficiency.
Traders monitoring this market should track squad announcements, managerial changes, and final-day league standings as May approaches, since late-season positioning often influences team motivation and tactical approach. Fixture congestion and European commitments elsewhere in the league may also affect availability. The settlement window closing at 13:30 UTC on match day leaves minimal time for post-match clarification, so pre-match liquidity and order-book depth on Polymarket will be critical for execution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Karlsruher SC vs. VfL Bochum - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$360 in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $237 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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