Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for May 17 at 9:30 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5) | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| Holstein Kiel (-1.5) | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5) | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| Holstein Kiel (-2.5) | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 82% YES | 18% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 61% YES | 40% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 41% YES | 59% NO |
SG Dynamo Dresden and Holstein Kiel will meet on 17 May 2026 in a 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the match scheduled for 09:30 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 32% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in a relatively modest likelihood of this specific market condition materialising on settlement day.
Dynamo Dresden and Holstein Kiel are both established second-tier clubs with contrasting recent trajectories. Dresden has experienced volatility in the 2. Bundesliga over the past decade, whilst Kiel secured promotion to the Bundesliga in 2024 before returning to the second division. Historical matchups between these sides show competitive encounters, though recent form and league positioning at the time of fixture will materially influence market pricing. The 32% probability currently embedded in the order book reflects baseline expectations absent fresh information about team selection, injury status, or tactical adjustments.
Traders should monitor official team news releases and fixture confirmations as the May date approaches. Bundesliga scheduling announcements, mid-season form trajectories, and any fixture postponements or relocations could shift the probability materially. Additionally, the broader 2. Bundesliga campaign context—promotion and relegation implications—may affect team motivation and resource allocation in the weeks preceding this match. Settlement occurs at 13:30 UTC on 17 May, leaving a defined window for information incorporation into the order book ahead of kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Holstein Kiel - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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