Trade: Manresa vs. Basket Zaragoza
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Liga Endesa game, scheduled for May 16 at 3:00PM ET: If the Manresa win, the market will resolve to "Manresa". If the Basket Zaragoza win, the market will resolve to "Basket Zaragoza". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $113
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Manresa vs. Basket Zaragoza | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Manresa and Basket Zaragoza are scheduled to meet in Liga Endesa on 16 May at 3:00PM ET. The market currently reflects a 50-50 split on Polymarket's order book, indicating genuine uncertainty between the two sides. Settlement occurs on 23 May, allowing a week's buffer beyond the scheduled fixture date to accommodate any postponements.
Historically, Liga Endesa matchups between mid-table sides have shown volatile pricing when teams carry similar win-loss records into the final stretch of the season. Both clubs have experienced periods of inconsistent form, making head-to-head records less predictive than seasonal trajectory. The even split on the order book suggests traders are pricing in comparable recent performance metrics and home-court considerations, with neither side commanding clear favouritism based on current standings or recent results.
Key variables for traders include roster availability and injury updates, which Liga Endesa clubs typically announce in the days preceding fixtures. Manresa's home-court advantage—if the game is played at their venue—historically carries measurable weight in Spanish league play. Monitor official Liga Endesa communications for any schedule changes or postponement notices, particularly given the May timing when fixture congestion can trigger rescheduling. Recent form sheets and head-to-head records from the current season should be cross-referenced against the order book's current pricing to identify any discrepancies between market consensus and underlying team performance data.
Wikipedia Context
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Bàsquet ManresaClub Bàsquet Manresa S.A.D., also known as Baxi Manresa for sponsorship reasons, is a professional basketball club based in Manresa, Spain. The team plays in the Liga ACB and the EuroCup Basketball. It home arena is the Pavelló Nou Congost. In 1998, Bàsquet Manresa won the Spanish Championship in one of the most astonishing and well-known sporting accomplish
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Manisa BasketManisa Basket, mostly known as Glint Manisa Basket for sponsorship reasons, is a Turkish professional basketball club based in Manisa, that competes in the Turkish Basketbol Süper Ligi. The team plays its matches in Muradiye Sports Hall.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.acb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Manresa vs. Basket Zaragoza" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $113 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Manresa vs. Basket Zaragoza"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.acb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Manresa vs. Basket Zaragoza"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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