Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Liga Endesa game, scheduled for May 14 at 3:00PM ET: If the Gran Canaria win, the market will resolve to "Gran Canaria". If the La Laguna Tenerife win, the market will resolve to "La Laguna Tenerife". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Gran Canaria vs. La Laguna Tenerife | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Gran Canaria and La Laguna Tenerife will contest a Liga Endesa matchup on 14 May at 3:00 PM ET, with settlement occurring by 21 May. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating traders perceive near-parity between the two Canary Islands clubs. This even pricing suggests neither side commands a clear advantage in the eyes of active market participants, though the settlement window allows a full week for the fixture to conclude should postponement occur.
Historically, Liga Endesa fixtures between regional rivals carry volatility driven by squad availability and form fluctuations in the final weeks of the season. Gran Canaria and Tenerife have competed at comparable levels in recent campaigns, with head-to-head records typically close. The 50-50 implied probability aligns with this competitive balance, though traders should note that late-season positioning—whether either club is fighting for playoff seeding or resting players—materially shifts expected outcomes. Recent injury reports or roster changes announced closer to the fixture date will likely move the order book.
Key catalysts include official team announcements regarding player availability, any schedule changes from the Liga Endesa governing body, and form data from matches in the week preceding 14 May. Traders should monitor Spanish basketball news sources for squad rotation decisions, particularly if either club has concurrent European competition or playoff implications. The seven-day settlement window provides flexibility should weather or administrative factors force postponement, though outright cancellation without a make-up fixture would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.acb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Gran Canaria vs. La Laguna Tenerife" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $152 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.acb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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