Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Perugia, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Llamas Ruiz' if Pablo Llamas Ruiz advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Pablo Llamas Ruiz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar | 56% YES | 45% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Daniel Merida Aguilar are scheduled to compete in a tennis match at the Perugia tournament on 5 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 56% implied probability for Llamas Ruiz to advance, suggesting traders view him as a modest favourite despite what may be relatively balanced matchup fundamentals. The settlement window closes on 12 June, allowing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date for completion.
Both players compete primarily on the ATP Challenger circuit, where surface and recent form carry substantial weight in match outcomes. Llamas Ruiz, a Spanish player, has shown variable results on clay courts—Perugia's playing surface—whilst Merida Aguilar's recent trajectory and head-to-head record against similar opponents provide context for assessing whether the current 56% probability overvalues or undervalues Llamas Ruiz's chances. Historical Challenger-level matches between unseeded or lower-ranked competitors often see probabilities shift materially once official seedings and recent ranking movements are confirmed closer to tournament dates.
Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger announcements regarding final draw confirmation, which typically occurs days before competition begins. Injury withdrawals or late ranking changes could alter perceived matchup quality. Weather conditions at Perugia in early June and any surface preparation details may influence clay-court specialists' preparation levels. The relatively tight 56-44 split suggests the market has not yet priced in significant new information, leaving room for probability movement if either player's recent form or fitness status becomes clearer.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$445 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $445 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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