Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for May 9 at 9:00PM ET: If Coachella Valley Firebirds win, the market will resolve to "Coachella Valley Firebirds". If Ontario Reign win, the market will resolve to "Ontario Reign". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Ontario Reign | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The American Hockey League playoff matchup between Coachella Valley Firebirds and Ontario Reign is scheduled for 9 May at 9:00 PM ET, with settlement occurring by 10 May at 01:00 UTC. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating either extreme confidence in one outcome or minimal liquidity at current pricing. This represents a playoff-stage fixture where both teams have demonstrated competitive capability throughout the 2023–24 season, though the compressed timeframe and single-game elimination context create material uncertainty.
Historical AHL playoff performance shows considerable variance in outcomes, particularly in matchups between Pacific Division rivals. Coachella Valley and Ontario have met multiple times in regular season play, with results distributed across both teams. The 100% probability reading on Polymarket's book suggests either substantial backing of one side at unfavourable odds or a liquidity constraint rather than genuine certainty of outcome. Comparable AHL playoff markets typically see probabilities ranging from 45–55% for evenly matched teams, making the current extreme reading noteworthy for traders assessing whether mispricing exists.
Key variables include roster availability and injury status for both squads heading into the fixture. Recent AHL playoff schedules have occasionally experienced postponements due to travel logistics or weather, though cancellations without rescheduling remain rare. Traders should monitor official AHL announcements regarding confirmed lineups and any schedule adjustments in the 48 hours preceding the match. The shootout resolution mechanism—adding one goal to the winning team's final score—affects interpretation of close outcomes but remains standard for AHL settlement protocols.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://theahl.com/stats/schedule. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Ontario Reign" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://theahl.com/stats/schedule. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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