Resolution criteria on PolyGram: NASA is scheduled to announce the four Artemis III astronauts on June 9, 2026, 11AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is announced as a member of the Artemis III crew. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only individuals named as part of the four-person astronaut crew will qualify. Announcements of inclusion as part of the ground crew or as understudies will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according only to the initial crew announcement. Changes to the roster after the initial announcement will not be considered. If no announcement of the crew composition takes place by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Andre Douglas | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Matthew Dominick | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Warren Hoburg | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Jessica Meir | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Frank Rubio | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Jenni Gibbons | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Takuya Onishi | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Nicole Mann | 50% YES | 50% NO |
NASA will announce the four crew members selected for the Artemis III lunar mission on 9 June 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This represents the agency's next crewed Moon landing programme following the Artemis I uncrewed test flight in November 2022 and the planned Artemis II crewed lunar flyby, currently scheduled for 2025. The Artemis III crew announcement will be definitive; only those named in the initial public declaration qualify for resolution, with subsequent roster changes excluded from consideration.
Historical precedent suggests substantial uncertainty in crew selection outcomes. NASA's astronaut selection process typically involves multiple candidates under consideration until the formal announcement, with final decisions influenced by technical requirements, mission-specific training progress, and organisational priorities that remain opaque to external observers. The 50% implied probability across the order book reflects this inherent unpredictability; individual candidates carry materially different selection likelihoods depending on their current career trajectory, prior spaceflight experience, and alignment with stated mission objectives.
Key catalysts include NASA's official announcements regarding Artemis II crew performance and readiness assessments, which typically inform downstream mission planning. The Space Launch System's development timeline and any delays to the Artemis II mission could reshape crew selection criteria. Recent statements from NASA leadership regarding lunar surface priorities and international partnership requirements may signal preferences for specific skill sets or demographic considerations. Traders should monitor official NASA communications and congressional testimony through mid-2026, as these often precede formal crew announcements and may telegraph selection priorities.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which astronauts will be on the Artemis III crew?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$750 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for spacex contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $34 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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