Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 30 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 40 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 50 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 60 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 70 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 90 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 100 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle closing price at noon ET on 11 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing near-certainty that Solana will trade above the specified threshold at that precise moment. Such extreme probabilities typically emerge when the strike price sits substantially below prevailing spot rates, leaving minimal room for a downside move within the settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests that single-point-in-time price markets on major exchanges exhibit high completion rates when thresholds are set conservatively relative to current levels. Solana's volatility profile—whilst elevated compared to large-cap equities—has rarely produced intraday swings of sufficient magnitude to breach deeply out-of-the-money strikes on major exchanges during calm market conditions. The 18-month timeframe to settlement also reduces the relevance of near-term technical positioning.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic catalysts affecting risk appetite and cryptocurrency sentiment through early 2026, including Federal Reserve policy signals and broader digital asset adoption announcements. Solana-specific developments—network upgrades, validator health, or ecosystem funding events—could influence volatility regimes. However, the settlement mechanism's specificity to a single 1-minute candle at noon ET creates execution risk independent of directional conviction; exchange outages, data feed anomalies, or liquidity gaps at that precise timestamp remain low-probability but non-zero considerations that the current pricing may not fully capture.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Solana above ___ on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$75K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for solana contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $33K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: