Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Monday, June 15, 2026 between Belgium and Egypt.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (Belgium vs. Egypt) | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Egypt | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| Belgium | 59% YES | 41% NO |
Belgium and Egypt will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 15 June. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Belgium victory at 23%, implying Egypt is favoured or the match is expected to be competitive. Settlement occurs at 19:00 UTC on that date, capturing the full-time result under standard FIFA World Cup rules.
Belgium's recent trajectory provides context for the 23% probability. The side finished third in the 2018 World Cup and reached the Euro 2020 quarter-finals, but has experienced notable player attrition since its 2022 World Cup campaign, where it exited in the group stage. Key figures including Eden Hazard and Axel Witsel have retired from international football. Egypt, conversely, has qualified for five of the last six World Cups and reached the Africa Cup of Nations final in 2021, though it has never advanced beyond the group stage at a World Cup. Historical head-to-head records and recent form in qualifying rounds will influence how traders reassess the current odds as the tournament approaches.
Traders should monitor Belgium's squad depth and injury status in the months preceding June, particularly among attacking players. Egypt's performance in African qualifying and any late coaching changes merit attention. Fixture congestion in European domestic leagues through May 2026 may affect player availability and fitness. Published squad lists and team news from official FIFA channels typically emerge in the weeks immediately before the tournament, providing concrete information that could shift current pricing materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Belgium vs. Egypt" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$224 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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