Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, June 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by June 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 1 day to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $18K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nemesis | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| The Roast of Kevin Hart | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Untold UK: Vinnie Jones | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Show C | — | |
| Show G | — | |
| Show K | — | |
| The Boroughs | 91% YES | 9% NO |
| Worst Ex Ever: Season 2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Netflix publishes its weekly Top 10 rankings for US television shows every Tuesday at 3:00 PM ET, with the next update scheduled for 2 June 2026. This market resolves to whichever show ranks first on that list, based on total views accumulated during the preceding week. The settlement window closes at 11:59 PM ET on 5 June, allowing a three-day buffer for the update to appear on top10.netflix.com; if no update materialises by then, the market resolves to "Other".
The current 0% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which show will occupy the top position. Netflix's weekly rankings are volatile and driven by release schedules, with new seasons or episodes typically generating viewership spikes that can dislodge incumbent leaders. Historical patterns show that established series rarely hold the #1 slot for consecutive weeks unless they're in the midst of a major release window. The absence of clear frontrunner pricing suggests traders lack confidence in any single show's dominance for the week ending 1 June 2026, or that the market has insufficient information about what content will be live during that period.
Traders should monitor Netflix's release calendar closely, particularly any announcements of new seasons or episodes dropping in late May. Recent industry reporting indicates Netflix continues staggering releases to sustain engagement, meaning the timing of major drops—whether for established franchises or new originals—will be the primary catalyst determining the top-ranked show. The current flat probability distribution suggests the market is genuinely open-ended, with multiple plausible outcomes depending on what Netflix releases in the days preceding the ranking update.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 2 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "What will be the top US Netflix show this week?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($18K of resting liquidity), a $100 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "What will be the top US Netflix show this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$62K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for rewards 50 4pt5 20 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "What will be the top US Netflix show this week?", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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