Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, defined as the total number of votes cast (총투표자수) divided by the total number of registered voters (선거인수). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 11%, making this a high-confidence market with 6 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $19K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <50% | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 55-60% | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| 65%+ | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| 50-55% | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 60-65% | 32% YES | 69% NO |
Seoul will hold mayoral elections on 3 June 2026. The market resolves based on official voter turnout expressed as a percentage of registered voters, with the current order book implying an 11% probability that turnout will exceed 60%. This represents a significant threshold, as the settlement brackets appear to divide the outcome space into distinct bands, with traders currently pricing the highest bracket as unlikely.
South Korean local elections have historically demonstrated volatile turnout patterns. The 2022 Seoul mayoral election saw approximately 58.6% turnout, whilst the 2018 election recorded 60.5%. These figures suggest turnout clustering around the 58–61% range, making the 60% threshold particularly relevant as a potential dividing line between brackets. National assembly elections typically draw higher participation than local contests, providing a comparative benchmark. The 11% probability reflects market scepticism that turnout will reach or exceed 60%, implying traders expect the result to fall below this level based on recent precedent.
Key variables affecting turnout include the political salience of the mayoral race, which depends partly on whether Seoul's position becomes a stepping stone for presidential ambitions, and broader voter engagement with local governance. The composition of the candidate field and any major scandals or policy announcements in the months preceding the election could shift participation rates. Economic conditions and approval ratings of the incumbent administration may also influence voter motivation. Traders should monitor candidate declarations and party positioning from late 2025 onwards, as these typically drive campaign intensity and voter mobilisation efforts in South Korean local elections.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 3 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Turnout", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($19K of resting liquidity), a $100 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Turnout" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$364 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rewards 200 4pt5 20 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $364 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Turnout", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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