Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Hyperliquid's price movement will be assessed over a five-minute window on 6 May 2026 between 11:30 and 11:35 AM Eastern Time, with settlement determined by Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed rather than spot market prices. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 100% implied probability for an upward or flat close, suggesting traders are pricing in minimal downside volatility during this specific interval.
Five-minute price windows in cryptocurrency markets typically exhibit low predictability relative to longer timeframes, with intraday volatility often driven by order flow imbalances and algorithmic trading rather than fundamental shifts. Historical precedent from similar short-duration prediction markets shows that extreme probabilities (approaching 100%) often reflect either genuine consensus around market direction or thin liquidity in the orderbook itself. The current pricing warrants scrutiny regarding whether conviction is genuine or whether the market simply lacks sufficient depth to move the probability away from extremes.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's broader market conditions in the days preceding the settlement window, including any protocol updates, exchange listings, or macroeconomic announcements affecting cryptocurrency sentiment. Chainlink's data feed aggregates prices from multiple sources, so discrepancies between spot markets and the feed's reading could create resolution ambiguity. The five-minute window's brevity means that any significant news or liquidation cascades occurring precisely during 11:30–11:35 AM ET would be the primary catalyst; absent such events, mean reversion or momentum continuation from preceding minutes would likely determine the outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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