Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? | 92% YES | 9% NO |
The market is pricing which of the two AI-focused companies will command a higher private valuation as of 30 June 2026, based on Nasdaq Private Market pricing data. OpenAI's current valuation stands at approximately $157 billion following its October 2024 funding round, whilst Anthropic reached $20 billion in its most recent disclosed round. The 92% implied probability favouring Anthropic reflects the order book's assessment that Anthropic will close a significantly larger funding round between now and mid-2026, or that OpenAI's valuation will contract materially. Current Polymarket liquidity suggests traders are pricing in substantial upside for Anthropic relative to OpenAI's established position.
Historical precedent shows that private valuations in the technology sector can shift dramatically within 18-month windows, particularly for companies in capital-intensive domains. Comparable cases—such as SpaceX's valuation trajectory and the volatility in fintech private markets—demonstrate that funding announcements, revenue milestones, and investor sentiment can drive 50% swings in valuations. The current probability implies either a transformative funding event for Anthropic or a significant revaluation downward for OpenAI.
Key catalysts include any announced funding rounds from either company, quarterly revenue disclosures if made public, regulatory developments affecting large language model companies, and shifts in enterprise adoption metrics. The settlement depends entirely on NPM's published pricing on 30 June 2026, with a four-day grace period for data release. Traders should monitor both companies' investor communications and industry funding announcements closely through early 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$22K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for privates contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 92%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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