Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Mike Bouchard | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| Casey Armitage | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Justin Kirk | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
Michigan's 10th congressional district will hold a Republican primary on 4 August 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 59% probability that a nominee will be formally announced by the 3 November 2026 deadline, with the remaining probability distributed across "Other" outcomes where no consensus nominee emerges or the process extends beyond the resolution window.
Historical precedent suggests Republican primary nominations in competitive Midwestern districts typically resolve without incident. The 2024 cycle saw most Michigan Republican primaries conclude on schedule with clear nominees, though occasional delays or contested processes have occurred in districts with multiple viable candidates or late entrant dynamics. The 59% implied probability reflects moderate confidence in a standard nomination process, suggesting the market perceives meaningful uncertainty around either candidate emergence or the formal announcement timeline.
Key catalysts for traders include candidate announcements and filing deadlines in the coming months, which will clarify the field and reduce uncertainty around the nomination outcome. Recent Michigan Republican Party communications regarding primary scheduling and candidate recruitment will signal whether the party expects a contested or consensus process. The resolution mechanism's reliance on RNC consensus sources means that any ambiguity in formal announcement procedures—particularly around the timing of official designation versus informal frontrunner status—could materially affect settlement. Traders should monitor both candidate declarations and Republican Party guidance through early 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for primaries contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: