Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| VOX | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| AA | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Party A | — | |
| Party E | — | |
| Party F | — | |
| PA | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Party B | — | |
| Party D | — | |
Andalusia holds elections for its regional parliament on 17 May 2026. The market resolves to whichever party or coalition secures the most seats in the 109-seat unicameral chamber. Current order book pricing reflects 0% implied probability for the listed outcome, indicating traders are assigning negligible likelihood to this specific resolution criterion at present.
Andalusia's electoral history provides context for seat distribution patterns. The 2022 election saw the Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSOE) win 33 seats, the People's Party (PP) 58 seats, and Vox 14 seats, with the PP forming a coalition government. Previous cycles have typically produced fragmented results requiring coalition negotiations. The 0% pricing suggests the market is either awaiting clarification on which party constitutes "the winner" for settlement purposes, or reflects extreme confidence in a particular outcome among active traders on the order book.
Key catalysts include official campaign announcements expected in early 2026, polling releases tracking voter intention shifts, and any significant political developments affecting regional or national dynamics. The PP's current governance of Andalusia and recent national polling trends will likely influence expectations. Traders should monitor whether the market's resolution criteria—based solely on seat count plurality—creates ambiguity if results are contested or if coalition negotiations extend beyond the December 2026 deadline, which would trigger "Other" settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Andalusia Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$82K in lifetime turnover and $113K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for pp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: