Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zendaya wears pieces of clothing, jewelry, or accessories from the listed designer at any point during her appearance at the 2026 Met Gala, currently scheduled for May 4, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Zendaya does not attend the Met Gala, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve only after the Met Gala has concluded. No afterparties or later events will qualify; only appearances at the Met Gala itself will count. If the Met Gala does not take place by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Balmain & Olivier Rousteing | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Loewe | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Alexander McQueen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Roberto Cavalli | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Schiaparelli | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Versace | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gucci | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Tiffany & Co. | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for 4 May, with Zendaya's attendance and designer choice forming the basis of this market. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability, indicating that traders are pricing in either very low confidence in a specific designer's selection or substantial uncertainty about the event itself. Settlement depends entirely on visual confirmation during the gala itself—afterparty appearances or subsequent red carpets do not qualify.
Zendaya's Met Gala history provides the primary reference point for evaluating designer likelihood. She has worn Tommy Hilfiger, Dolce & Gabbana, and Valentino at previous iterations, with her 2018 appearance in a custom Versace gown becoming particularly iconic. Her choices typically reflect either established luxury relationships or emerging collaborations announced in the months preceding the event. The designer in question here would need to have either a pre-existing relationship with Zendaya or secure a confirmed partnership announcement before May 2026 to shift market odds materially.
Traders should monitor fashion press coverage from January through April 2026 for any designer partnerships or exclusive dressing announcements. The Met Gala's theme—typically revealed in early spring—often influences designer selection, as does the broader fashion calendar. Zendaya's stylist Law Roach's public statements regarding the gala frequently signal direction weeks in advance. If no credible announcement materialises by late April, the 0% probability may prove self-reinforcing, as late designer pivots at this event remain uncommon.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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