Trade: Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is announced to be a bridesmaid at Taylor Swift's wedding to Travis Kelce. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Taylor Swift's engagement to Travis Kelce is called off, cancelled, or otherwise broken according to official statements from either party or their legal or social media representatives or a consensus of credible reporting, this market will resolve to "No". If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $652
- Total Volume
- $920
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $262
Market outcomes
| Blake Lively | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Selena Gomez | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| Gigi Hadid | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Cara Delevingne | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Brittany Mahomes | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zoë Kravitz | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 19% YES | 81% NO |
Market context
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's relationship became public in September 2023, with the NFL player attending Swift's Eras Tour concerts and the pair appearing together at Kansas City Chiefs games throughout the 2023–2024 season. As of early 2025, no engagement has been officially announced, though tabloid speculation about a potential proposal has been persistent. The market assumes both an engagement occurring and a wedding taking place by 30 June 2027, with resolution contingent on official confirmation from either party or credible reporting consensus.
Historical precedent suggests celebrity wedding party selections remain highly unpredictable until formal announcements. Swift's previous relationships have not resulted in marriages, making direct comparison difficult. However, her close friendships with figures including Blake Lively, Selena Gomez, and members of her broader social circle would typically inform bridesmaid selection. The current 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty around whether an engagement materialises, whether a wedding occurs within the timeframe, and whether any specific individual receives a bridesmaid invitation.
Key catalysts include any official engagement announcement, which would shift probability significantly upward, and subsequent wedding planning disclosures. Traders should monitor Swift's social media, official statements from her representatives, and credible entertainment reporting from outlets including Variety and The Hollywood Reporter. The market's resolution depends entirely on external confirmation; absence of announcement by the June 2027 deadline triggers automatic "No" resolution. Relationship status changes or public statements from either Swift or Kelce regarding their future would materially affect underlying assumptions.
Wikipedia Context
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Taylor SwiftTaylor Alison Swift is an American singer-songwriter. An influential figure in popular culture, she is known for her autobiographical songwriting and artistic reinventions. Swift is the highest-grossing live music artist, the wealthiest female musician, and one of the best-selling music artists of all time.
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Taylor Swift (album)Taylor Swift is the debut studio album by the American singer-songwriter Taylor Swift. It was released in North America on October 24, 2006, and reissued multiple times between 2007 and 2008 by Big Machine Records. Inspired by Swift's teenage perspective on life, the lyrics explore themes of love, friendship, and insecurity.
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Taylor Swift albums discographyThe American singer-songwriter Taylor Swift has released 12 original albums, 4 re-recorded albums, 5 extended plays (EPs), and 4 live albums. In the United States, as of May 2025, she had sold 116.7 million album-equivalent units, coming from 54 million pure sales and 70.7 billion streams; the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) as of November 2
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Taylor Swift masters disputeIn June 2019, a dispute emerged between American singer-songwriter Taylor Swift and her former record label, Big Machine Records, its founder Scott Borchetta, and its new owner Scooter Braun over the ownership of the masters of her first six studio albums. The private equity firm Shamrock Holdings acquired the masters in 2020, whereupon Swift re-recorded and
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$920 in lifetime turnover and $652 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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