Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kanye West is formally refused entry into the United Kingdom between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “refused entry” refers to any formal action by the government of the United Kingdom that bars Kanye West from lawfully entering the United Kingdom. Qualifying actions include, refusing or cancelling a visa for West, issuing an exclusion decision or order against West, or otherwise formally determining that West may not enter the United Kingdom.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kanye blocked from entering the UK by May 31? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The market prices the likelihood that the United Kingdom government will formally refuse Kanye West entry before 31 May 2026. This encompasses visa refusals, cancellations, exclusion orders, or any formal determination barring lawful entry. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting traders assess this outcome as virtually certain within the settlement window.
UK entry bans have historically been issued to public figures on grounds including national security concerns, public safety risks, or statements deemed to incite hatred. The Home Office possesses broad discretion under the Immigration Act 1971 to refuse entry or issue exclusion orders without requiring criminal conviction. Comparable cases include exclusions of foreign nationals for extremist rhetoric or conduct deemed harmful to public order. The certainty reflected in current pricing suggests traders view existing circumstances or statements as meeting the threshold for formal exclusion action.
Catalysts to monitor include any scheduled UK visa applications or tour announcements that would trigger Home Office review, public statements from West that officials might cite in exclusion decisions, and formal Home Office communications regarding his immigration status. The settlement hinges on whether the government takes documented formal action rather than de facto prevention of entry. Traders should track both explicit policy announcements from the Home Office and any visa applications that would create administrative touchpoints where refusal could be formally recorded.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Kanye blocked from entering the UK by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$31K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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