Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Hokum (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on May 4, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by May 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 65+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 75+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 85+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 70+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 90+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hokum, a 2026 film, will receive a critical assessment via Rotten Tomatoes' aggregated Tomatometer score. The market resolves based on whether the "All Critics" score meets or exceeds a specified threshold on 4 May 2026. Current order book activity on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the film will clear the threshold. This pricing typically emerges when the underlying metric is either already published, or when market participants assess near-certainty based on available information.
Historical Rotten Tomatoes outcomes for comparable studio releases show considerable variance. Films from major distributors typically accumulate 30–50 reviews within the first week of release, with final scores stabilising around the two-week mark. Genre comedies—a likely category for Hokum given its title—average 55–65% on the Tomatometer, though prestige releases and critical darlings regularly exceed 75%. The current 100% probability suggests either the film has already screened for critics or traders possess advance knowledge of critical reception.
Traders should monitor film festival announcements and early screening schedules through March and April 2026, as premiere dates often precede Rotten Tomatoes aggregation. Trade publication coverage and critic previews will signal reception momentum before the May resolution window. The settlement mechanism includes a fallback period extending to 8 May should data unavailability occur, providing a five-day buffer. Any significant gap between current pricing and actual critical consensus at resolution would indicate information asymmetry in today's order book.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading ""Hokum" Rotten Tomatoes score?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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