Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) is banned from Kick by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Official announcements from Kick that Clavicular will be banned will qualify regardless of whether the ban has gone into effect. Temporary bans will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be Kick.com (e.g., https://kick.com/clavicular), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
Braden Eric Peters, known online as Clavicular, is a content creator on Kick, the livestreaming platform backed by Stake founder Ed Craven. This market concerns whether Kick will issue an official ban—temporary or permanent—against Clavicular's account by 31 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability of such a ban occurring within the settlement window, suggesting traders assess the likelihood as negligible.
Kick's enforcement record provides context for interpreting this probability. The platform has historically maintained a more permissive moderation stance than competitors like Twitch, though it has issued bans for violations of its terms of service, including instances involving high-profile streamers. Comparable cases on other platforms show that bans typically follow either explicit policy breaches (harassment, illegal activity, copyright violations) or sustained community pressure. The absence of recent public controversy involving Clavicular appears to underpin the market's current pricing.
Traders monitoring this market should track Kick's official announcements regarding account actions, any policy changes to the platform's terms of service, and developments in Clavicular's streaming activity that might trigger enforcement action. The settlement window extends approximately 18 months from present, providing substantial time for circumstances to shift. Resolution will rely primarily on Kick.com's account status or official statements from the platform, with credible reporting serving as secondary confirmation if direct verification becomes unavailable.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Clavicular banned from Kick by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$831 in lifetime turnover and $341 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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