Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Palantir (PLTR) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $146-$148 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >$148 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| <$130 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $130-$132 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $132-$134 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $134-$136 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $136-$138 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $138-$140 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Palantir Technologies' share price on the final trading day of the week commencing 4 May 2026 will determine settlement. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where no meaningful volume has accumulated at any single price bracket, leaving the market thinly traded and the consensus view essentially unformed at this stage.
Historical precedent suggests Palantir's weekly closes have tracked broader market sentiment alongside company-specific catalysts. The stock has demonstrated volatility around earnings announcements, government contract awards, and shifts in commercial adoption metrics. Comparable defence-contractor and software-as-a-service equities typically see weekly price movements of 3–8% absent major news, though Palantir has occasionally exceeded this range. The absence of probability concentration across brackets indicates traders are awaiting additional information before committing capital to specific price ranges.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding new government contracts, quarterly earnings guidance, and macroeconomic conditions affecting technology valuations in the weeks preceding settlement. Any material developments in Palantir's commercial customer base or federal spending priorities could drive directional movement. Market-wide volatility, particularly in software equities and defence stocks, will likely influence positioning. The settlement window extends to 8 May 2026, allowing traders to adjust positions as new information emerges closer to the final trading day of that week.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is an American publicly traded company that develops data integration and analytics platforms. Headquartered in Miami, Florida, it was founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel, Stephen Cohen, Joe Lonsdale, Alex Karp, and Nathan Gettings.
The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power is an American fantasy television series developed by J. D. Payne and Patrick McKay for the streaming service Amazon Prime Video. It is based on J. R. R. Tolkien's history of Middle-earth, primarily material from the appendices of the novel The Lord of the Rings (1954–55). The series is set thousands of years be
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Palantir (PLTR) closes week of May 4 at ___?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for pltr contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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