Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $140 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $141 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $142 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $143 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $145 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $133 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $134 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $135 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Palantir Technologies' share price will be tested during the week commencing 4 May 2026, with settlement determined by the official closing price on the final trading day of that week. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either an exceptionally high strike price relative to current valuations or minimal liquidity at the current ask, leaving the market essentially unpriced by active traders at present.
Palantir's historical volatility and institutional positioning provide context for interpreting such extreme probabilities. The company has demonstrated significant price swings tied to quarterly earnings announcements, government contract awards, and shifts in commercial adoption metrics. Previous weeks with similarly compressed probabilities have typically resolved based on whether specific catalysts—earnings surprises, major contract announcements, or broader market sentiment shifts—materialised within the settlement window. The absence of active bidding at 0% suggests either consensus that the strike is unrealistic or insufficient trader interest in the specific price level.
The week of 4 May falls outside typical earnings seasons for Palantir, though the company frequently announces government contracts and partnership expansions with limited advance notice. Traders should monitor any announcements regarding commercial pipeline progress, particularly in the artificial intelligence and data analytics sectors where Palantir competes. Broader equity market conditions, Federal Reserve communications, and technology sector rotation will also influence PLTR's directional bias during the settlement window. Current order book depth will determine whether the probability shifts materially as the week approaches.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is an American publicly traded company that develops data integration and analytics platforms. Headquartered in Miami, Florida, it was founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel, Stephen Cohen, Joe Lonsdale, Alex Karp, and Nathan Gettings.
The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power is an American fantasy television series developed by J. D. Payne and Patrick McKay for the streaming service Amazon Prime Video. It is based on J. R. R. Tolkien's history of Middle-earth, primarily material from the appendices of the novel The Lord of the Rings (1954–55). The series is set thousands of years be
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 4 above___?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pltr contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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