Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | 17% YES | 83% NO |
Pierre Poilievre has led the Conservative Party of Canada since September 2022. This market resolves to "Yes" if he steps down or is removed from the leadership position at any point before the end of 2026, with an announcement of resignation or removal triggering immediate resolution regardless of the effective date. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 17% probability, implying a roughly four-in-five chance Poilievre remains leader through the settlement window.
Canadian Conservative leadership transitions have historically been infrequent but occasionally abrupt. Stephen Harper led for twelve years before stepping down following electoral defeat in 2015; Andrew Scheer lasted four years before resigning in 2020 after the 2019 election; Erin O'Toole was removed by caucus in February 2022 after less than two years. The 17% probability reflects a baseline expectation of stability, though the party's demonstrated willingness to remove underperforming leaders within a two-year window suggests non-trivial removal risk remains priced into the market.
Key catalysts include federal election timing—currently scheduled for October 2025—and Poilievre's electoral performance against Justin Trudeau's government. Recent polling has shown the Conservatives leading, reducing immediate pressure for change. Internal party dynamics, caucus confidence votes, and any significant personal or political controversies would represent material triggers. The market window extends fourteen months beyond the next federal election, meaning post-election outcomes and any subsequent leadership challenges would fall within the resolution period.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$148K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for pierre contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $271 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 17%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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