Trade: NVIDIA (NVDA) closes week of May 11 at ___?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the official closing price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $21K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| $190-$195 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| $195-$200 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| $200-$205 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| $205-$210 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| $210-$215 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| $215-$220 | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| $220-$225 | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| $225-$230 | 16% YES | 85% NO |
Market context
NVIDIA's closing price on Friday, 16 May 2025 will determine this market's resolution. The 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a narrow band outcome—traders are pricing in an exceptionally tight closing range for the week. This low probability suggests the crowd expects NVIDIA to settle outside a specific price bracket, with current positioning concentrated in higher or lower bands depending on the exact strike levels available in the order book.
Historical volatility in NVIDIA stock provides context for interpreting such compressed probabilities. Over the past two years, weekly closes have typically ranged across multiple percentage points, yet extreme single-week price movements remain uncommon absent major earnings surprises or sector-wide selloffs. The 2% reading indicates either a very narrow bracket definition or significant consensus that NVIDIA will avoid a particular price zone entirely—a pattern more typical when markets price in directional conviction rather than uncertainty.
Traders should monitor earnings announcements, data centre demand signals, and broader semiconductor sector movements through mid-May. Recent quarterly results and guidance have shaped investor positioning, whilst any unexpected commentary on AI chip demand or competitive pressures could shift the stock materially. Macroeconomic data releases and Federal Reserve communications may also influence technology sector rotation during the settlement window. The order book depth and bid-ask spreads on Polymarket will indicate whether this low probability reflects genuine consensus or thin liquidity in that particular bracket.
Wikipedia Context
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Nvidia CUDA Compiler
Nvidia CUDA Compiler (NVCC) is a compiler by Nvidia intended for use with CUDA. It is proprietary software.
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GeForce 6 seriesThe GeForce 6 series is the sixth generation of Nvidia's GeForce line of graphics processing units. Launched on April 14, 2004, the GeForce 6 family introduced PureVideo post-processing for video, SLI technology, and Shader Model 3.0 support.
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CUDACUDA is a proprietary parallel computing platform and application programming interface (API) that allows software to use certain types of graphics processing units (GPUs) for accelerated general-purpose processing, significantly broadening their utility in scientific and high-performance computing. CUDA was created by Nvidia starting in 2004 and was officia
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Fat binary
A fat binary is a computer executable program or library which has been expanded with code native to multiple instruction sets which can consequently be run on multiple processor types. This results in a file larger than a normal one-architecture binary file, thus the name.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "NVIDIA (NVDA) closes week of May 11 at ___?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nvda contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "NVIDIA (NVDA) closes week of May 11 at ___?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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