Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lord of the Flies | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Man on Fire | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| Should I Marry A Murderer? | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Legends | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| The Roast of Kevin Hart | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Running Point | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Unchosen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| The Chestnut Man | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Netflix publishes its official Top 10 TV shows ranking for the United States each Tuesday at 3:00 PM ET, measuring viewership from the preceding week. This market settles on which show ranks second in that list when Netflix updates top10.netflix.com on 12 May 2026. The ranking reflects total views across all Netflix accounts in the US, making it an objective, verifiable outcome tied to actual viewing behaviour rather than critical reception or subscriber sentiment.
The current 2% implied probability reflects the difficulty of predicting a specific second-place finish among dozens of potential contenders. Historical Netflix Top 10 data shows considerable week-to-week volatility in rankings, particularly outside the top position. Established series like *Stranger Things* or *The Crown* have held strong positions during release windows, whilst newer releases frequently surge into the rankings before declining. The second position is notably less stable than the top spot, as it sits in the range where new releases, returning seasons, and established hits compete directly. This structural unpredictability explains why any single show trading at 2% reflects genuine uncertainty rather than dismissal of a particular title's prospects.
Traders should monitor Netflix's release schedule for the week of 5–11 May, as new season launches or surprise drops significantly alter viewership distribution. Announcements regarding major releases scheduled for that period remain the primary catalyst. The settlement window closes 15 May at 11:59 PM ET, allowing for the standard Tuesday update plus a three-day buffer. Without a confirmed release calendar or promotional activity signalling a specific show's momentum, the market's low probability reflects the baseline difficulty of isolating one show's second-place finish.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for netflix contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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