Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| June 30 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The market centres on whether Donald Trump will formally invoke the National Emergencies Act during his presidency, with resolution required by 30 June 2026. A formal declaration under the NEA—distinct from rhetorical claims of emergency—triggers specific statutory powers and must be documented through official administration channels. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing near-certainty that at least one such declaration will occur within the settlement window.
Trump's first term saw multiple national emergency declarations, including for border security in February 2019 and for the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. The NEA has been invoked 66 times since its enactment in 1976, with usage accelerating in recent decades across both administrations. This historical pattern establishes that formal declarations are routine executive tools rather than extraordinary measures, making the crowd's confidence in occurrence unsurprising given Trump's demonstrated willingness to deploy the mechanism.
Traders monitoring this market should track policy announcements regarding border enforcement, immigration, or other domains where Trump has signalled emergency-level intervention. Congressional activity around NEA reforms or restrictions could also influence timing. Recent reporting from major news outlets has documented Trump's stated intentions on immigration enforcement, though formal declaration timing remains discretionary. The settlement window extends 18 months from the market's current date, providing substantial opportunity for declaration, which explains why the order book shows minimal YES-NO spread at extreme probability levels.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump declares a national emergency by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nea contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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